Saturday, December 7, 2019

Before going forward on a big decision on anything, consider this...

We let ourselves see only a part of the complete picture, especially when things are glamorized (entrepreneurship) or villainized (working for others).
Hopefully, you’ll heed this advice and use good solid thinking and evidence to make all your key decisions.  Read the attached piece on “thinking” in a way that works!!!! 

_____________________________

“A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.” 

— Daniel Kahneman

”Beware of advice from the successful.” 

— Barnaby James
”Don’t go to college.  It is a lousy education.”
“Follow your heart.  Don’t be ‘reasonable’!”
“Almost every single generic presentation for startups starts with “Ninety Five percent of all startups fail”, but very rarely do we pause for a moment and think “what does this really mean?” We nod our heads in somber acknowledgement and with great enthusiasm turn to the heroes who “made it” — Zuckerberg, Gates, etc. to absorb pearls of wisdom and find the Holy Grail of building successful companies. Learning from the successful is a much deeper problem and can reduce the probability of success more than we might imagine.“

Read this 3 minute article: Survivorship Bias:  The Tale Of Forgotten Failures - One of the thinking models that we should all know (from the great thinker Shane Parrish!)

(See also Smart, Effective Thinking, on my site.)

No comments:

Post a Comment